Nigeria posted a robust trade surplus of $10.83 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with exports of $44.06 billion comfortably outpacing imports of $33.23 billion, according to the latest Quarterly Statistical Bulletin from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The positive balance reflects a steady improvement in the country’s external trade position, driven primarily by stronger export earnings and a marginal decline in import growth. Analysis of the data shows average monthly export growth of 0.76%, while import growth averaged a slight negative 0.08% over the period.
The widest monthly surplus occurred in June at $1.89 billion, while March recorded the narrowest at $580.68 million. Export performance peaked in July at $5.85 billion, followed by May at $5.18 billion, with weaker months in March ($4.54 billion) and January ($4.60 billion). Imports were highest in July at $4.46 billion and lowest in June ($3.08 billion) and September ($3.23 billion).
Oil continued to dominate export earnings, contributing $37.13 billion — or 84.28% of total exports — while non-oil exports stood at $6.93 billion, representing 15.72%. The heavy reliance on crude underscores both the source of the surplus and Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations.
Industry stakeholders welcomed the surplus but urged greater diversification. Dr Bamidele Ayemibo, former Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Export Group, said the positive balance was encouraging but unsustainable without reducing oil dependence. “We are exporting more than we are importing, which is good for equilibrium,” he noted. “But because we rely too much on oil, it’s high-risk. If prices crash — due to increased supply from non-OPEC producers like Russia or shifts in demand — we could be back in trouble.”
Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, attributed part of the improvement to rising domestic refining capacity, including the Dangote Refinery, which has helped stabilise the petroleum market. He also highlighted the role of agricultural investments — particularly in rice and cassava — in reducing import dependence and supporting export growth.
Improved FX market conditions, including a narrower official–parallel premium, were cited as another factor enabling better planning for exporters and reducing speculative FX demand.
While the $10.83 billion surplus signals progress in Nigeria’s trade performance, experts stress that long-term sustainability requires accelerated diversification into non-oil sectors, especially agriculture and manufacturing. Strengthening non-oil exports and addressing domestic production challenges will be critical to shielding the economy from external oil shocks and building a more resilient external trade position.
