Nigeria recorded a sharp contraction in its current account surplus during the fourth quarter of 2025, falling 65.52% to $1.40 billion from $4.06 billion in the preceding quarter, according to provisional balance of payments (BoP) data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on March 19, 2026.
The overall BoP surplus also narrowed to $2.67 billion from $4.60 billion in Q3 2025, highlighting mounting pressure on the country’s external accounts amid declining export earnings and rising import demand.
The goods trade surplus dropped 60.93% to $1.77 billion from $4.53 billion, driven by weaker crude oil exports (down 20.54% to $6.77 billion) and refined petroleum exports (down 13.97% to $1.97 billion). Total exports fell to $13.36 billion from $15.31 billion, while non-oil imports surged 24.93% to $8.77 billion, further eroding the trade balance.
The primary income account deficit widened significantly by 47.30% to $3.27 billion, reflecting higher dividend and interest outflows to foreign investors. The services account showed slight improvement, with net outflows narrowing to $3.32 billion from $3.95 billion due to reduced service-related imports.
Remittances provided a critical cushion, with secondary income inflows rising to $6.21 billion, helping offset some of the deterioration in the trade and income accounts.
On the financial account side, Nigeria recorded net borrowing of $1.96 billion in Q4, up from $0.79 billion in Q3. Portfolio investment inflows strengthened to $5.27 billion from $2.51 billion, signaling renewed foreign interest in domestic assets. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined to $1.11 billion from $1.46 billion, indicating softer long-term capital commitments.
External reserves rose 6.97% to $45.75 billion by the end of December 2025, up from $42.77 billion in September, providing a modest buffer against external shocks.
The Q4 performance contributed to a full-year BoP surplus of $4.23 billion in 2025, according to earlier CBN data, a significant improvement from consecutive deficits in 2023 and 2024 but still reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil exports and vulnerability to global price swings and production constraints.
Analysts note that while remittances, portfolio inflows, and rising reserves offered some support, the steep decline in oil-related earnings and persistent import growth underscore ongoing external sector challenges. Sustained reforms to boost non-oil exports, improve domestic refining capacity, and attract stable FDI will be critical to strengthening Nigeria’s balance of payments position in the coming quarters.
