The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will hold a stakeholder engagement meeting on Monday ahead of the release of Nigeria’s inflation figures for December 2025, officials confirmed.
The meeting comes amid widespread projections from financial analysts that the recent downward trend in inflation may pause temporarily, due to year-end festive spending and statistical base effects.
Several investment firms have forecast a month-on-month increase. CardinalStone projects the headline inflation rate will reach 32.07% for December, while AIICO Capital estimates it will land between 31.4% and 32.4%. Both firms suggest the rise is likely to be short-lived, with a return to disinflation expected in January 2026.
In a recent macroeconomic note, Coronation Asset Management also predicted a sharp year-end rise, attributing it primarily to base-year effects in the calculation methodology. The firm cited additional pressure from festive demand, increased holiday travel costs, higher logistics expenses, and constrained food supplies due to insecurity in some agricultural regions.
Analysts point to mixed underlying price movements. AIICO Capital noted that factors such as a stronger Naira in the official foreign exchange window and a significant reduction in petrol prices—following a price cut by the Dangote Refinery—should help moderate some core inflation components on a month-on-month basis.
The private sector think tank, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, emphasized the importance of the NBS’s pre-release engagement. In a communication to stakeholders, the group stated that an anticipated spike in the December figure is largely a computational result of the Consumer Price Index rebasing conducted in 2025, and does not reflect a sudden deterioration in economic conditions.
“These expectations, if not well understood, risk heightening uncertainty, weakening confidence in official statistics, and complicating policy and business decision-making,” the group noted. The meeting aims to ensure transparency, clarify methodological details, and maintain public confidence in the official data.
The NBS rebased the nation’s inflation index in early 2025, updating the price reference year from 2019 to 2024. The bureau stated the change was necessary to better reflect current consumption patterns and price volatility, providing a more accurate picture of economic trends.
The December inflation report is keenly awaited by policymakers, investors, and businesses for signals on the direction of Africa’s largest economy amid ongoing monetary and fiscal reforms.
