Billions of naira poured into Nigeria’s social safety nets are largely missing the mark, with just 44% of benefits landing in the hands of the country’s poorest citizens, a fresh World Bank analysis reveals.
The report, *The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria*, released Tuesday, exposes deep flaws in targeting, funding, and design that leave millions of vulnerable families underserved despite high-profile federal initiatives.
While 56% of program recipients are classified as poor, they capture only 44% of total payouts, the bank found. The mismatch arises mainly from flat-rate household transfers: larger impoverished families—common in rural areas—split the same fixed sum among more members, diluting its impact.
“Poorest households are bigger, so the money stretches thinner,” the report states. “Even well-targeted schemes fail to lift people out of poverty when benefits are capped per household rather than per person.”
Nigeria allocates a mere 0.14% of GDP to social protection—far below the 1.5% global average and 1.1% for Sub-Saharan Africa. The result? All safety-net programs combined shave just 0.4 percentage points off the national poverty rate.
Federal flagship efforts face particular scrutiny. The National Social Safety Nets Programme (NASSP), which disburses N25,000 cash grants, aims to reach 15 million households (about 70 million people). Finance Minister Wale Edun said 8.5 million have received at least one payment, with the rest due by December.
Yet the World Bank notes that NASSP’s household-fixed model undercuts its reach. By contrast, the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme, which targets individual pupils, avoids this pitfall—but currently serves only grades 1–3 and lacks nationwide coverage.
Donor dependence adds fragility. From 2015 to 2021, foreign aid covered 60% of federal safety-net spending, with the World Bank itself funding over 90%. “Sustainable domestic financing is urgently needed,” the report warns, citing risks of sudden shortfalls.
Still, one bright spot shines: NASSP’s use of the National Social Registry (NSR)—now Africa’s largest, with 85 million profiles—delivers stronger results. Among its direct beneficiaries, poverty drops 4.3 percentage points and the poverty gap narrows by 4.2 points—nearly ten times the impact of all other programs combined.
“Scale up NSR-linked, per-capita transfers and the poverty dividend could multiply,” the bank urges.
Critics say the findings validate long-standing complaints. “We see the banners, hear the promises, but the money never reaches the village,” said Fatima Yusuf, a community leader in Kano. “Children still faint from hunger in school.”
The report calls for redesigned benefits, higher budgets, and reduced donor reliance to turn rhetoric into relief. Until then, Nigeria’s poorest remain caught in a safety net full of holes.
