Bitcoin hovered perilously close to the $105,000 mark on Monday after shedding 2.2% over the weekend, closing around $107,500 as traders braced for pivotal U.S. employment figures and parsed signals from Washington on possible Federal Reserve rate relief.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly dipped under $108,000, extending a 9.4% retreat from its October 10 peak near $110,000. Ethereum mirrored the weakness, sliding 3% to roughly $3,750, while most alternative coins languished in thin weekend volumes.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s weekend remarks amplified the uncertainty. In a televised interview, Bessent warned that the Fed’s prolonged tight policy has tipped sensitive sectors like housing into recessionary territory, squeezing indebted consumers and leaving the central bank room to ease borrowing costs. Initial market optimism for cheaper money lifted digital assets briefly, but the cheer evaporated as participants weighed the downside: rate cuts triggered by economic frailty rather than robust expansion.
On-chain forensics paint a grim picture of fading momentum. A mid-October liquidation event wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions, sapping the fuel that powered the summer surge. Glassnode data show Bitcoin struggling to clear the $113,000 average acquisition price for coins held less than 155 days—a stubborn ceiling that has repelled bulls for three consecutive weeks despite swelling turnover earlier in the rally.
Technical gauges flash caution. The Relative Strength Index sits at 43, well beneath the 50 midpoint, confirming growing downward pressure. The MACD histogram is shrinking, with its signal lines pinching together—classic signs that upward drive is ebbing.
Should selling accelerate, the next major fault line lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-October climb, around $106,453. A decisive close beneath that threshold could open the door to the October 10 trough near $102,000, and in a worst-case spiral, the 78.6% retracement at roughly $88,000—levels that have historically arrested prior bear cycles.
A sliver of hope remains if buyers defend $106,500; a rebound from there could target the 50-day exponential moving average near $112,550. Yet even upbeat macro developments failed to ignite sustained buying. Last week’s U.S.-China summit delivered concrete concessions—Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases, postponing rare-earth export curbs for 12 months, and Washington trimming its average tariff on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%—yet Bitcoin shrugged off the détente.
The Nasdaq 100, a barometer for risk appetite, has surrendered 2.7% from its own October 10 high, underscoring broader caution despite easing trade frictions and solid corporate profits.
Analysts now warn that the crypto market’s muted reaction to favorable headlines betrays a deeper loss of conviction. With the Fed’s next policy meeting looming and non-farm payrolls due Friday, any hint of labor-market softening could cement expectations for aggressive easing—potentially a double-edged sword that floods liquidity but underscores economic cracks.
For now, Bitcoin’s breach of its perennial October resilience in the naira markets stands in stark contrast to its own faltering trajectory, leaving holders to wonder whether the latest dip is a healthy pause or the prelude to a sharper correction.
