The naira lost 1.31% in October even after the Central Bank of Nigeria pumped about $1.98 billion into the foreign exchange market, as dollar scarcity and early festive demand kept the currency under pressure.
Official data showed the naira closing at ₦1,346.91 per dollar on 30 October 2026, compared with ₦1,329.50 at the end of September. The decline reversed part of the gains made between July and September, when the currency had strengthened for three straight months. Importers, manufacturers and other businesses scrambled for foreign exchange ahead of the Christmas and New Year period.
Five Interventions, Limited Full Cover
The CBN sold roughly $1.981 billion across five exercises in October in amounts of about $430.6 million, $200 million, $950 million, $100 million and $300 million.
Demand was fully met in only two of those five rounds a 40% success rate. In the other three, requests exceeded what was supplied. The pattern underlines that even large central bank sales do not always clear the market when competition for dollars is intense.
Festive Season Adds to the Strain
Analysts expect pressure to build further as companies stock up for the festive season. Importers typically raise purchases of food, electronics, clothing, beverages and household goods, while manufacturers need dollars for machinery and raw materials. Repatriation of earnings by foreign investors can add another layer of demand.
For businesses, limited access to dollars can delay imports, disrupt production schedules and push up costs. Consumers may feel the effect through higher prices on imported goods if the exchange rate remains soft.
Soft Start to November
The naira traded at ₦1,347.94 on Monday, 2 November, slightly weaker than ₦1,346.26 on 30 October. Interbank FX turnover dropped sharply by about 63% from $58.85 million to $21.77 million, pointing to thinner trading at the start of the month. Parallel-market dealers quoted the dollar around ₦1,385 to ₦1,390 on 3 November, a clear premium over the official rate.
Earlier in October the currency had already suffered a sharp two-day slide, falling by ₦27.12 to ₦1,361.84 on 23 October from ₦1,334.72 on 21 October, even as external reserves stood near $55.16 billion.
Cardoso Stresses Liquidity Over Intervention Alone
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has argued that the bank’s longer-term goal is to deepen market liquidity and rely less on direct dollar sales. He has pointed to a rise in average daily FX turnover from about $100 million to $550 million, and occasionally as high as $1 billion, which he links to reforms aimed at greater transparency and confidence.
Sustained stability will still depend on stronger export earnings, foreign investment, remittances and other dollar inflows. With festive demand set to peak, businesses and households will be watching whether the naira can hold without another extended bout of depreciation.
