The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has expressed optimism that the price of petrol could drop significantly, potentially below ₦400 per litre, due to a recent slump in global crude oil prices.
Speaking on the economic implications of the downturn, CORAN representatives highlighted that if crude oil stabilizes at around $50 per barrel, the domestic cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could realistically fall to approximately ₦350 per litre. However, they caution that despite this potential, the price of petrol in Nigeria might continue to climb unless strategic policy decisions are maintained—particularly the continuation of the naira-for-crude arrangement.
Global oil markets took a hit last week, with Brent crude slipping below $65 per barrel for the first time in over three years. This sharp decline has been linked to a mix of geopolitical events, including heightened US trade tariffs, retaliatory measures from China, and OPEC+’s unexpected increase in oil production. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, also saw a 7.4% drop, ending at $61.99 per barrel.
Meanwhile, despite a reduction in the landing cost of petrol—now at ₦865 per litre, down from ₦885—Nigerian marketers have raised ex-depot prices from ₦860 to ₦900. This indicates a persistent disconnection between international oil trends and domestic fuel pricing.
Eche Idoko, CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, voiced concerns that Nigeria’s fuel pricing does not reflect current global realities. He blamed the situation on currency exchange pressures, logistical costs, and the influence of intermediaries, whom he accused of profiting off the importation system while undermining efforts to develop local refining capabilities.
“The middlemen benefit from inflated pricing structures,” said Idoko. “They do not invest in infrastructure or take on any real risk. They simply act as brokers between foreign sellers and Nigerian buyers, profiting off the gap.”
Idoko further emphasized the importance of supporting local refining efforts, arguing that the naira-for-crude initiative is vital not only for reducing fuel prices but also for strengthening the naira and improving national energy security.
The policy, launched by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited in October 2024, was designed to supply domestic refineries—such as the Dangote plant—with crude oil purchased in naira, rather than dollars. Although the agreement aimed to deliver 385,000 barrels per day, reports suggest deliveries had only reached 280,000 b/d by March 2025.
Critics of the fuel import regime argue that dismantling the naira-for-crude approach will reverse gains made so far, pushing Nigeria back into a cycle of dependency and inflated fuel prices. CORAN insists that maintaining this policy is essential if Nigerians are to benefit from their country’s oil wealth.
Despite the challenges, Idoko remains hopeful. “The government must choose between empowering domestic refiners or preserving a system that benefits only a few,” he said. “With the right support, we can see fuel prices fall significantly, and ensure energy access is both affordable and sustainable.”
