Goldman Sachs has upwardly revised its crude oil price projections for 2026, forecasting Brent crude to average $64 per barrel across the full year—up from a previous estimate of $56—while anticipating a fourth-quarter level of $60 per barrel.
The updated outlook, detailed in the investment bank’s latest commodities report released on February 22, 2026, also raises the full-year West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $60 per barrel from $52, with a Q4 target of $56 per barrel. This represents a $6 increase for both benchmarks in the fourth quarter compared to prior assumptions.
The revisions stem primarily from lower-than-expected inventory builds in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, which Goldman now projects will account for only 19% of global stock accumulation—down from an earlier 27% assumption. Despite the tighter near-term supply picture, the bank maintains its base-case view of a 2.3 million barrels per day global oil surplus throughout 2026, assuming no major disruptions from geopolitical events, including no significant Iranian supply increase or resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Goldman attributes the Q4 2026 Brent forecast of $60 to a combination of factors: the gradual unwinding of an estimated $6 geopolitical risk premium as tensions potentially ease, offset by a $5 decline in crude’s fair value due to eventual inventory rebuilding. The bank expects OPEC+ to initiate gradual output increases starting in the second quarter of 2026, contributing to the projected surplus.
Risks remain tilted to the downside. If sanctions relief for Iran or Russia unlocks additional volumes faster than anticipated, Goldman warns Brent could drop by as much as $5 and WTI by $8 in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead, the bank projects Brent and WTI averaging $65 and $61 per barrel in 2027, respectively.
Current market conditions show Brent trading around $71 per barrel and WTI near $65.75 as of early February 24, 2026, sessions, supported by ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran but tempered by surplus expectations.
For Nigeria, the revised Goldman forecast aligns closely with the country’s 2026 fiscal framework, approved in December 2025, which uses a Brent benchmark of $64 per barrel alongside a production target of 2.6 million barrels per day (with a more conservative 1.8 million bpd for budget calculations) and an exchange rate of N1,512 to the dollar. The updated projections offer a modestly optimistic lens on revenue assumptions amid persistent global supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical uncertainties.
Analysts note that while the upward adjustment reflects current inventory dynamics, the outlook underscores ongoing volatility in oil markets, with potential for further shifts depending on OPEC+ decisions, demand trends in Asia, and developments in key producing regions.
