A blockbuster $2.3 billion Eurobond sale, oversubscribed more than fivefold, is poised to propel Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves to $45 billion by year-end, bolstering currency defenses and signaling a thaw in global investor sentiment, according to CardinalStone Research.
The investment firm’s latest macroeconomic brief highlights the issuance’s record demand—bids topped $12.7 billion, excluding lead managers—yielding coupons of 8.62% and 9.13%. Upgrades from international rating agencies underpinned the enthusiasm, underscoring reduced perceived sovereign risk.
“The overwhelming response validates Nigeria’s improving economic story,” CardinalStone analysts wrote. “Proceeds will shore up reserves, support naira stability, and fund budget gaps without deviating from our debt forecasts.”
The fresh capital is earmarked partly to retire $1.118 billion in bonds maturing November 21, 2025, with the balance bridging fiscal shortfalls. Public debt is expected to climb to N166.7 trillion (42.2% of GDP) by December, still within sustainable bounds.
Comercio Partners echoed the optimism but flagged currency volatility as a lingering threat. “While inflows ease immediate pressures, any naira slide would inflate debt-service costs in local terms and erode confidence,” the brokerage cautioned.
As of mid-2025, Nigeria’s total public debt was N152.4 trillion ($99.66 billion), split roughly evenly between external ($46.98 billion) and domestic ($52.67 billion) obligations, per Debt Management Office data. Despite a manageable debt-to-GDP ratio, servicing consumes over 40% of federal revenue, constraining maneuverability amid global shocks.
