Which central bank will print less of its currency earlier? That is the main question for GBP/USD traders as tensions rise toward the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” decision.
Cable has some distance to climb and recover from Wednesday’s dollar surge. Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida said he supports announcing a taper already this year and sees risks to his inflation outlook as being to the upside. While he refrained from backing an outright reduction of the Fed’s bond buys in 2021, moving forward with stating it is already a step toward tightening.
Clarida’s comments were also backed up by Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed – usually a dove – who even said that tapering could come as early as this year. The prospects of printing fewer dollars sent the greenback higher and stole the show from mixed economic data.
ADP’s Nonfarm Payrolls report badly disappointed with an increase of only 330,000 private-sector jobs last month. On the other hand, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index surprised with a sky-high score of 64.1 points – including a rise in the Employment component. The data serve as clues toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
More Inflation, the chip shortage and Delta are peaking, what it means for markets and the dollar
The focus now shifts to the pound and the BOE’s triple release of its rate decision, meeting minutes and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report – which makes it a “Super Thursday” decision. Similar to the Fed, the “Old Lady” is set to leave its policy unchanged for now, but to include voices calling for tighter policy.
Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders is projected to vote in favor of tapering the BOE’s £895 billion bond-buying scheme and remain the sole dissenter. In that case, sterling has room to fall. However, if he is joined by Dave Ramsden or other members, the pound could climb on prospects of action coming sooner than later.
UK inflation hit 2.5% in June, exceeding the bank’s target, while unemployment remains low. On the other hand, the government’s furlough scheme is set to expire next month and price rises could provide temporary.
See BOE Preview: Five reasons the doves are set to win Super Thursday, GBP/USD may dip
Overall, the battle between central banks is critical to the next moves – and especially the voices of those members that do not toe the line.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
Momentum on the four-hour chart has turned positive, a bullish sign. Moreover, pound/dollar avoided falling off the 50 Simple Moving Average and trades above the 100 and 200 SMAs – another positive development.
Some resistance is at the daily high of 1.3925, followed by 1.2950, which was Wednesday’s peak. Further above, 1.3980 was July’s high point.
Support is at the daily low of 1.3870, followed by 1.3845 and 1.3760.
