Nigeria’s external reserves are expected to rise to about $51.04 billion in 2026, reflecting improved foreign exchange inflows, stronger oil revenues and the impact of ongoing reforms in the FX market, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The projection, contained in the apex bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, represents a significant increase from the estimated $45.01 billion expected by the end of 2025. The CBN said the outlook points to a strengthening of Nigeria’s external buffers and reduced strain on the foreign exchange market.
In its assessment, the bank attributed the anticipated growth in reserves to higher oil earnings, increased sovereign bond issuances and steady diaspora remittances. It also highlighted the role of recent FX market reforms, which are aimed at improving transparency and efficiency while narrowing the gap between official market rates and those quoted by Bureau De Change operators.
“The external reserves are projected to reach $51.04 billion in 2026, compared to $45.01 billion in 2025,” the CBN said, adding that lower pressure in the FX market would support reserve accumulation as inflows strengthen.
A key factor behind the optimistic outlook is the expansion of domestic refining capacity. The CBN noted that the Dangote Refinery is expected to raise production to about 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, with plans to scale up to 1.4 million barrels per day over the longer term. Increased local refining is expected to cut Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products, thereby reducing demand for foreign exchange.
The apex bank said these developments follow years of FX constraints driven by high import bills, subsidy costs and weak inflows, which necessitated reforms to unify exchange rates, improve price discovery and rebuild investor confidence.
If the projections are realised, analysts say higher external reserves would enhance Nigeria’s capacity to meet foreign obligations, improve import cover and provide a stronger cushion against global economic shocks. A more stable FX environment could also help attract foreign investment and support broader macroeconomic stability in the years ahead.
