On July 23, 2025, at the Comercio Partners H2 2025 Economic Outlook conference in Nigeria, Dr. Ubah Jeremiah delivered a compelling presentation titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation.” Speaking to a diverse audience of policymakers, investors, and industry leaders, Dr. Jeremiah provided a data-driven analysis of the evolving global and Nigerian economic landscapes. His insights, grounded in advanced economic modeling and real-time indicators, offered a roadmap for navigating the complexities of a rapidly changing world. This article expands on his presentation, exploring the global economic shifts, Nigeria’s unique challenges and opportunities, and the strategic imperatives for sustainable growth.
Global Economic Shifts: A Multi-Polar World
Dr. Jeremiah began by contextualizing the global economy’s transformation, emphasizing the shift from speculative forecasting to sophisticated tools like stochastic models. These models, which account for randomness and uncertainty, have become critical in predicting economic trends amid recent global shocks. He highlighted key disruptors: tariffs, volatile commodity prices, and persistent recession fears, particularly in the United States. In the U.S., private debt has fallen below public debt, which now exceeds 120% of GDP—a significant structural shift. This convergence is accompanied by a surge in public sector employment, contrasting with a slowdown in private sector job growth. Dr. Jeremiah noted that this trend reflects a growing reliance on government intervention to stabilize the economy, a strategy that carries both risks and opportunities.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), a measure of the dollar’s value against a basket of foreign currencies, has also faced volatility, dropping from 100 to 97 due to trade and monetary policies from the Trump era. This weakening has provided a temporary boost to emerging markets, including Nigeria, by making their exports more competitive. However, Dr. Jeremiah cautioned that recession fears, while not immediate, remain a concern, with U.S. growth projected at a modest 1% for 2025 and inflation risks potentially rising above 3%. These dynamics underscore the fragility of the global economic recovery and the need for adaptive strategies.
Globally, Dr. Jeremiah observed a decline in U.S. dominance in capital and trade surplus since the post-World War II era. Rising public debt and widening trade deficits have accelerated the pivot toward a multi-polar economic order. Commodities like gold and oil have gained prominence, driven by geopolitical tensions such as the Ukraine war, which has disrupted supply chains and energy markets. Additionally, alternative assets like cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin and Ethereum, in particular—are gaining stability through institutional backing from firms like BlackRock and Vanguard. This trend signals a transformative phase in global finance, where digital assets are increasingly integrated into mainstream portfolios. Dr. Jeremiah urged countries to strategically navigate this shift, balancing traditional and emerging asset classes to hedge against volatility.
Nigeria’s Economic Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities
Turning to Nigeria, Dr. Jeremiah painted a nuanced picture of an oil-dependent economy grappling with structural challenges. Bearish oil prices, coupled with production and export constraints, have strained government revenues. Currency devaluation has driven inflation to approximately 22%, eroding purchasing power and increasing living costs. However, an unexpected appreciation of the naira offers a glimmer of hope, providing temporary relief in an otherwise challenging environment. Dr. Jeremiah emphasized that Nigeria’s economic volatility underscores the need for diversification and structural reforms to reduce reliance on oil.
A key recommendation from Dr. Jeremiah was banking sector recapitalization, which he described as essential for supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and infrastructure development. SMEs, which form the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, require accessible financing to thrive, while infrastructure investments are critical to achieving the country’s ambitious $1 trillion economy goal. Dr. Jeremiah also celebrated the entertainment industry’s role as a driver of inclusive growth. Employing millions and gaining international recognition, sectors like Nollywood and Afrobeats offer pathways for youth engagement and cultural diplomacy. He cited the industry’s contribution to job creation as a model for leveraging Nigeria’s demographic dividend.
Recent economic rebasing, which incorporates digital and informal sectors into GDP calculations, has elevated Nigeria’s economic standing, positioning it as one of Africa’s largest economies. However, this recalibration has also exposed persistent welfare gaps, with millions still lacking access to basic services. Dr. Jeremiah projected a 4% GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025, driven by increased government expenditure on infrastructure and social programs. Yet, he acknowledged the challenges ahead, including the need to address inefficiencies in public spending and attract foreign investment to bolster foreign reserves, which recently reached $1 billion.
Local and Global Strategies: Equity Markets and Commodities
Dr. Jeremiah also analyzed Nigeria’s local equity market, which has exhibited bullish trends and increased trading participation. Sectors like banking have shown resilience, with potential for 200% growth despite regulatory hurdles. However, he warned that new tax regulations, particularly high capital gains taxes, could deter both foreign and local investors, potentially stifling market momentum. To mitigate this, he advocated for investor-friendly policies that balance revenue generation with market growth.
Agriculture and entertainment remain pillars of Nigeria’s economic stability. Dr. Jeremiah encouraged greater investment in agricultural resources to achieve self-sustainability, leveraging Nigeria’s fertile land and favorable climate. He also emphasized the importance of international debt strategies to attract foreign investors, noting that Nigeria’s $1 billion in foreign reserves provides a foundation for rebuilding investor confidence. On the global stage, Nigeria must position itself to capitalize on the rising demand for commodities and alternative assets, aligning its economic policies with emerging trends.
Comercio Partners’ Role in Shaping the Narrative
The Comercio Partners H2 2025 Economic Outlook conference provided a platform for these insights, fostering dialogue among stakeholders. Comercio Partners, a leading financial advisory firm in Nigeria, has consistently championed data-driven economic analysis and policy advocacy. By hosting experts like Dr. Jeremiah, the firm contributes to shaping Nigeria’s economic narrative, offering actionable recommendations for policymakers and investors. The conference underscored the importance of collaboration between public and private sectors to address Nigeria’s challenges and seize its opportunities.
A Strategic Blueprint for the Future
Dr. Jeremiah concluded his presentation with cautious optimism about Nigeria’s economic resilience. While the local equity market may struggle to exceed 20% growth in 2025, he remained hopeful about the transformative potential of economic reforms. His analysis highlighted the importance of innovation, diversification, and proactive policy measures to build a robust and adaptable economy. For Nigeria, this means investing in agriculture, entertainment, and digital infrastructure while addressing structural weaknesses like inflation and currency volatility. Globally, it requires navigating the shift toward a multi-polar world, where commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets play increasingly significant roles.
In a world of economic reconfiguration, Dr. Jeremiah’s insights serve as a clarion call for strategic action. By embracing advanced forecasting tools, leveraging natural and cultural assets, and fostering investor confidence, Nigeria can chart a path toward sustainable growth. As global trade evolves and quantum innovation reshapes finance, the lessons from this conference offer a blueprint for stakeholders to build a resilient economic future for Nigeria and beyond.
