As the escalating US-Iran conflict sends global oil prices soaring past $80 per barrel and triggers fuel shortages and long queues in places like Britain, Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery is crediting its local production for sparing the country from similar mayhem while sharply rebuking importers who claim their imported petrol is cheaper.
The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) released data showing that as of Monday, the landing cost for imported petrol stood at around N809 per litre, roughly N64 less than Dangote’s ex-depot (gantry) price of N874 per litre. This gap followed the refinery’s N100 hike from N774, prompted by Brent crude jumping from below $70 to over $84 amid airstrikes involving the US, Israel, Iran, and regional players.
Retail pump prices in Nigeria climbed to as high as N937 in some areas on Tuesday, up from pre-crisis levels of N812–N839, reflecting the ripple effects of the Middle East turmoil. Yet, unlike reports of panic buying and empty forecourts in the UK where prices rose by up to 11 pence per litre and stations ran dry Nigerian filling stations have seen no widespread queues or outright scarcity.
Dangote officials, speaking anonymously due to the issue’s sensitivity, dismissed the importers’ pricing comparison as a “false narrative” designed to pressure the government into keeping import licences flowing. They challenged marketers to source fuel directly from conflict zones like Iran if they believe imports are truly more viable.
“Why keep importing what we can produce here?” one official asked pointedly. “Some want to sustain dependence on foreign products forever that’s not normal. How do our children survive if we destroy local capacity?”
The refinery emphasized its stabilizing role: without domestic refining capacity, Nigeria could be facing paralyzing fuel shortages right now, just like many import-reliant nations. “Dangote has shielded the economy from crisis,” another official added. “Economic activities would be grinding to a halt without it. This crisis proves there’s no substitute for self-reliance.”
MEMAN, however, warned of ongoing uncertainty in the downstream sector. With crude under pressure from geopolitical risks and potential further spikes toward $90 or beyond, pump prices could climb to N1,100 next month if tensions persist. The association noted brief pauses in sales by some private depots as they adjusted to the new realities.
The back-and-forth highlights deeper tensions in Nigeria’s evolving fuel market: Dangote’s push for local dominance versus importers’ arguments on cost competitiveness. As the Middle East conflict disrupts global supplies halting tanker traffic through key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz Nigeria’s partial insulation thanks to domestic refining stands out as a rare bright spot amid the volatility.
Analysts say the episode underscores the strategic value of the Dangote facility not just in pricing, but in delivering energy security, jobs, and national pride when global markets turn chaotic. For now, while the world grapples with supply fears, Nigerians are filling up without the queues seen elsewhere.
