Bilateral trade between China and Nigeria reached new heights in 2025, with Chinese exports to Africa’s most populous nation surging to an all-time high of $24.9 billion, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
This marked a significant rebound, jumping roughly 32% from $18.9 billion in 2024 and surpassing the previous record of $22.6 billion set in 2021. Over the longer term, the figure represents more than a doubling from $9.72 billion in 2016, underlining China’s deepening role as Nigeria’s leading supplier of manufactured and industrial goods.
The growth trajectory has been far from linear. Steady increases occurred from 2016 to 2019, driven by rising Nigerian demand for machinery, electronics, textiles, construction materials, and heavy equipment to fuel infrastructure projects and consumer spending. Trade held firm through the 2020 pandemic disruptions before exploding in 2021 amid post-crisis restocking and capital goods needs.
A three-year slowdown followed, however, as Nigeria grappled with foreign exchange shortages, naira depreciation, and tighter liquidity. Exports dipped from over $21 billion in 2022 to $20 billion in 2023 and then to $18.9 billion in 2024, reflecting how sensitive import volumes are to dollar availability and settlement challenges.
The sharp 2025 recovery points to improved conditions following recent FX market reforms, greater transparency in currency allocation, and enhanced liquidity that allowed deferred demand to clear. Importers regained capacity to bring in shipments, boosting inflows of consumer electronics, industrial inputs, textiles, and machinery that support both household needs and manufacturing sectors.
Despite ongoing government pushes for import substitution and local production—particularly in consumer and intermediate goods Nigeria’s reliance on Chinese imports remains entrenched. These categories continue to dominate the trade basket, highlighting limited progress in reducing dependence on foreign capital equipment and finished products.
From Nigeria’s perspective, the escalating import bill adds sustained pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the naira, especially in an economy where crude oil exports remain the primary FX earner. Without stronger non-oil exports, diversified capital inflows, or accelerated domestic industrial growth, the widening gap could complicate balance-of-payments management.
Nigeria’s exports to China, by contrast, stayed relatively modest dominated by raw materials like petroleum gas, crude oil, and minerals resulting in a substantial trade deficit favoring Beijing. Recent partial data suggest the imbalance persisted into early 2026, though monthly fluctuations occur.
The rebound illustrates the resilience of China-Nigeria economic ties amid global shifts, but it also spotlights structural vulnerabilities. Future trends will depend on Nigeria’s ability to ramp up local manufacturing, diversify export earnings, and manage FX pressures, while China’s export momentum continues to reflect its competitive edge in affordable manufactured goods.
As both nations navigate evolving global trade dynamics, this record figure reinforces China’s position as Nigeria’s dominant import partner and underscores the need for balanced, sustainable trade strategies to support long-term economic stability.
