The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth projections for Nigeria, forecasting a 3.9% expansion in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Tuesday during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings.
The updated figures mark an upward revision from the IMF’s July 2025 estimate of 3.4% growth for 2025, reflecting growing optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory. The 2026 projection also represents a significant improvement from the earlier 3.2% forecast, positioning Nigeria’s growth ahead of South Africa but slightly below the Sub-Saharan African regional average.
The IMF attributes Nigeria’s improved outlook to several domestic factors, including increased oil production, enhanced investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal policy expected to strengthen in 2026. The report highlights Nigeria’s resilience amid global trade uncertainties, noting its limited exposure to proposed U.S. tariff hikes.
In contrast, South Africa’s growth forecast was slightly increased to 1.1% for 2025 but downgraded to 1.2% for 2026. The broader Sub-Saharan African region is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up from previous estimates.
Globally, the IMF projects economic growth to moderate at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly better than earlier projections but still below pre-policy shift expectations due to trade uncertainties and protectionist measures. Advanced economies are anticipated to grow at 1.5% over the period, with the U.S. slowing to 2.0%. Emerging markets, including Nigeria, are expected to see growth just above 4.0%.
The IMF also forecasts a decline in global inflation to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, alongside a slowdown in world trade growth to 2.9% over the same period, driven by ongoing trade fragmentation.
The report commends the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary policy, which has been instrumental in curbing inflation and fostering macroeconomic stability, as noted during the IMF’s 2025 Article IV consultation with Nigeria.
As global finance leaders gather in Washington, Nigeria’s upwardly revised growth projections signal a positive outlook, driven by domestic reforms and favorable economic conditions, despite global challenges.
