Nigeria’s poverty rate increased to 63% in 2025, equivalent to about 140 million people living below the poverty line, even as headline inflation eased significantly, according to the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update released on April 10, 2026.
The report, titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” showed poverty rising from 56% in 2023 to 61% in 2024 before reaching 63% last year. The World Bank attributed the increase to the fact that household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset the lingering effects of elevated inflation in previous years.
“Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report stated. It noted that the cumulative impact of past inflation shocks continues to weigh on real incomes, limiting the benefits of the current disinflation trend. External pressures, including the Middle East conflict, were also cited as drivers of higher energy, food, and transport costs, further worsening conditions for low-income households.
The report identified structural gaps in Nigeria’s growth pattern as another major constraint to poverty reduction. Economic expansion has been driven largely by services and industry, while agriculture — where more than half of the poor are employed — has lagged behind.
“Growth in the agriculture sector — where more than half of the poor work — has lagged services and industry, constraining the pace of poverty reduction,” the World Bank noted. This imbalance has limited income gains among vulnerable populations, weakening the link between overall economic growth and improved living standards.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected a gradual decline in poverty from 2026 as inflation continues to moderate and macroeconomic conditions stabilise. Poverty is expected to fall to about 59% by 2028, supported by lower food inflation and moderate growth. However, progress will be constrained by weak job creation, low agricultural productivity, and persistent inequality.
The bank emphasised that targeted reforms to improve livelihoods and expand access to productive employment are critical to reversing current trends. It also highlighted the strong link between poverty and human capital outcomes, noting that poorer households face worse conditions in nutrition, health, and early childhood development, which reinforces long-term inequality.
The rise in poverty occurred despite a sharp moderation in inflation. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed headline inflation dropping from 34.80% in December 2024 to 15.15% in December 2025 — a decline of 19.65 percentage points. Food inflation also fell significantly from 39.84% to 10.84% over the same period.
The World Bank’s assessment underscores the need for more inclusive and job-rich growth to ensure that macroeconomic gains translate into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians. Without deliberate policy focus on agriculture, smallholder productivity, and human capital development, poverty reduction is likely to remain slow despite disinflation and moderate economic expansion.
