The World Bank has maintained that Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory remains intact for the first half of 2026, even as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising global energy prices create significant external challenges.
Fiseha Haile, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, made this assessment during a presentation in Abuja on Tuesday, April 7, 2026. He noted that business activity has continued to expand despite the shocks, with the overall impact on growth remaining relatively contained so far.
However, Haile issued a strong warning about the risks posed by elevated inflation and surging fuel costs. “Inflation is still elevated and under increasing pressure,” he said. “That poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction.”
Fuel prices in Nigeria have risen by more than 50% in recent weeks due to the escalation of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, driving up costs for transportation, food production, and other essential services. Headline inflation, which stood at 15.06% in February 2026 — down sharply from around 33% in December 2024 — remains high compared with regional peers.
The fiscal deficit widened slightly to 3.1% of GDP in 2025, although the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade, offering some relief on the public debt front.
The World Bank projects Nigeria’s economic growth at approximately 4.2% for 2026. It advised the government to maintain tight monetary policy, save windfall revenues from higher oil prices, and avoid broad-based subsidies that could strain public finances.
The report also drew attention to a severe crisis in early childhood development. It revealed that Nigeria records about 110 deaths per 1,000 children under five years old, with roughly 40% of children experiencing stunting. More than half of Nigerian children fail to meet key developmental milestones before reaching school age, pointing to critical gaps in health, nutrition, and early education systems.
The World Bank’s assessment comes at a time when Nigeria is navigating a complex mix of external shocks and domestic reforms. While the economy has shown resilience, sustained progress will depend on disciplined macroeconomic management, targeted investments in human capital, and measures to shield vulnerable households from the impact of rising living costs.
Haile emphasised that maintaining policy credibility and addressing structural bottlenecks will be essential to preserving the current growth momentum and achieving more inclusive development outcomes in the coming years.
