In the annals of Nigeria’s post-independence history, few figures have cast as long a shadow as Muhammadu Buhari, whose death on July 13, 2025, in London marks the end of a complex and polarizing chapter. At 82, Buhari’s legacy is a tapestry of service, controversy, and economic upheaval. From his early days as a military officer to his two terms as Nigeria’s president (1983–1985 and 2015–2023), Buhari shaped the nation’s trajectory in ways that will be debated for generations. His passing prompts a sobering reflection on a tenure that, for many, redefined economic hardship in Nigeria, leaving the country grappling with crises that seemed insurmountable. As Nairametrics analysts, we dissect the economic and political currents of his era, acknowledging both his contributions and the profound challenges that marked his leadership.
Buhari’s journey through Nigeria’s public life was remarkable. In the 1970s, he served as a military governor and petroleum minister, playing a pivotal role in establishing the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). He later chaired the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), overseeing infrastructure projects, before leading Nigeria as a military head of state and, decades later, as a democratically elected president under the All Progressives Congress (APC). His supporters hailed him as a disciplined, principled leader—a rare figure untainted by personal corruption. Critics, however, saw him as rigid, economically shortsighted, and out of touch, presiding over policies that plunged Nigeria into its worst economic crisis in decades. The truth, as always, lies in the nuances.
By 2022, Nigeria was mired in a multifaceted economic crisis that became the hallmark of Buhari’s second term. The APC’s “Next Level” doctrine, touted as a blueprint for prosperity, faltered under the weight of global and domestic pressures. The naira, artificially propped up by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), traded at a stark discount on the parallel market, with rates soaring past N700/$ by late 2022 compared to the official rate of N415/$. Foreign investors, spooked by a heterodox forex policy that restricted dollar access, fled in droves, with foreign direct investment (FDI) dropping to $468 million in 2022, a 33% decline from 2021 (World Bank, 2023). Inflation surged to 21.1% by October 2022, driven by soaring food prices, which outpaced headline inflation by nearly double (Nairametrics, 2022). Real GDP growth, at 3.1% in 2022, barely kept pace with Nigeria’s 2.6% population growth, leaving per capita income stagnant (World Bank, 2022). Poverty levels worsened, with 80 million Nigerians living below the extreme poverty line by 2022, a figure that would climb to 87 million by 2023 (World Bank, 2025).
Buhari’s economic policies, rooted in his belief in “pro-people” measures, often defied economic orthodoxy. His refusal to remove fuel subsidies, which cost over N5 trillion annually by 2022, strained public finances, accounting for 15% of the federal budget—more than health and education combined (BBC, 2024). His administration’s insistence on a fixed exchange rate, despite mounting pressure for devaluation, led to a parallel market premium that fueled arbitrage and eroded investor confidence. The CBN’s aggressive monetary policy under Governor Godwin Emefiele, offering high-yield Open Market Operations (OMO) bills, briefly attracted $20 billion in portfolio inflows by 2018. But this was a house of cards. By 2022, the naira’s overvaluation and forex shortages triggered capital flight, with foreign reserves dwindling to $36 billion from a high of $47 billion in 2018 (Nairametrics, 2020).
Insecurity compounded these economic woes. Buhari’s 2015 campaign promise to crush Boko Haram and secure Nigeria gave way to a grim reality. By 2022, insurgency in the Northeast, banditry in the Northwest, and separatist agitations in the Southeast had escalated, disrupting agriculture and trade corridors. The World Bank noted that insecurity in food-producing regions contributed to food inflation reaching 50–100% in 2022, pushing 5 million more Nigerians into poverty (Sunnewsonline, 2023). Kidnappings for ransom surged, with even schoolchildren targeted, heightening social tensions and prompting food warehouse lootings (IMF, 2024). Buhari’s pledge to take the fight to terrorists’ strongholds rang hollow as insecurity crept closer to Abuja, undermining public trust.
Health controversies further clouded Buhari’s tenure. His prolonged medical trips abroad, estimated at 152–225 days between 2015 and 2023, sparked wild speculation, including conspiracy theories of a body double after his return in 2017 looking markedly healthier. These absences, often for undisclosed ailments, raised questions about his capacity to govern and highlighted Nigeria’s reliance on foreign medical systems, a stark irony for a nation aspiring to economic self-sufficiency. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 exacerbated these challenges, with global oil prices collapsing to $20 per barrel, slashing Nigeria’s export revenues by 60% (World Bank, 2022). The CBN’s response—extending over N20 trillion in Ways and Means advances to fund government spending—fueled inflation and deepened fiscal deficits, reaching 6.7% of GDP in 2022 (IMF, 2024).
The naira redesign policy of late 2022, intended to curb illicit financial flows and promote electronic transactions, became a symbol of Buhari’s chaotic final months. Implemented just before the 2023 elections, it triggered cash shortages, long queues, and economic paralysis, with over 80% of currency outside banks (Sunnewsonline, 2023). The policy’s poor execution alienated even APC loyalists, who saw it as a sabotage of their electoral chances. Buhari’s aloofness during this period—offering only a tepid endorsement of his party’s candidate, Bola Tinubu—underscored his detachment, a trait both admired and vilified. He retired to his Daura farm in May 2023, leaving a nation grappling with 29.9% inflation and a naira at N1,035/$ by December (U.S. Department of State, 2024).
Buhari’s defenders argue he inherited a broken system. The oil price crash of 2014, global economic shocks from COVID-19, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 were beyond his control. His first term as military ruler in the 1980s faced similar constraints, with a depleted treasury post-oil boom. Supporters point to infrastructure gains—8,938 housing units and 8,938 km of roads built between 2015 and 2023 (FG, 2025)—and his personal integrity, noting he was never personally implicated in corruption scandals. Yet, critics counter that his administration’s opacity, particularly around fuel subsidies and CBN financing, fostered systemic corruption, with Tilewa Adebajo estimating $19 billion in central bank loans to cover deficits (BBC, 2024).
Social media sentiment on X reflects the polarized views. Posts from 2023–2025 describe Buhari as “spectacularly useless,” blaming him for “three recessions” and leaving Nigeria “broke” with 96% of taxes servicing debt (@SirWilliam, @basilabia). Others, like @NaijaHealthHub, sarcastically lauded him as Nigeria’s “best president,” citing fictitious achievements to mock his record. Yet, even detractors acknowledge his commanding presence and loyal following, a testament to his enduring influence.
Buhari’s legacy is a paradox: a man of principle who governed during Nigeria’s darkest economic hours. He came with promises of change, saw the nation through turbulent times, and left a footprint that history will judge. His policies, from currency controls to subsidy addiction, deepened Nigeria’s economic woes, yet his personal integrity and institutional contributions endure. As Nigeria mourns, the debate over Buhari’s impact will rage on. May he rest in peace.
