Nigeria’s crude oil output fell short by approximately 93.74 million barrels from January to August 2025, resulting in a revenue loss of about $6.85 billion and casting doubt on the funding of this year’s national budget, according to upstream regulatory data.
At an average price of $73.06 per barrel for Bonny Light crude, as reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the production deficit translates to the stated revenue hit. Using the 2025 budget’s benchmark of $75 per barrel, the shortfall climbs to $7.03 billion.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported total crude and condensate production of 406.84 million barrels over the period, 18.27% below the budgeted 500.58 million barrels.
The budget assumed daily output of 2.06 million barrels, but actual averages reached only 1.673 million barrels per day—a daily gap of 390,000 barrels.
Should the pattern persist through December, an additional 47.58 million barrels could be lost over the final 122 days, equating to roughly $3.56 billion in foregone earnings.
Quarterly breakdowns reveal consistent underperformance: first-quarter misses totaled 35.01 million barrels ($2.625 billion at budget price), second-quarter shortfalls hit 34.67 million barrels ($2.592 billion), July recorded 10.78 million barrels ($808.5 million), and August 13.28 million barrels ($996 million).
NUPRC’s August report to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) showed remittances of N745 billion against a N1.2 trillion target, creating a N459.6 billion deficit. July remittances were N723.17 billion, bringing the two-month oil and gas revenue gap to N941.23 billion.
Royalty collections drove much of the underperformance, with August yielding N682.28 billion versus a projected N1.144 trillion—a N461.89 billion shortfall.
From January to August, NUPRC transferred N5.475 trillion to the Federation Account via the CBN, well below the expected N8.433 trillion. Including NNPC joint venture and production-sharing contract receivables of N1.05 trillion plus Project Gazelle funds of N730.24 billion, total performance stood at N7.103 trillion.
**Persistent Challenges Hamper Output**
Oil theft, pipeline sabotage, and insufficient upstream investment continue to plague the sector, preventing it from meeting official targets.
Industry observers express skepticism about a late-year rebound. Joe Nwakwue, partner at Zera Advisory, described the 2.06 million bpd goal as unrealistic. “Achieving both volume and price targets looks improbable based on current trajectories,” he said. “Volume expansion requires time and capital mobilization, both of which are constrained.”
Nwakwue noted brighter spots in non-oil revenue but stressed that these gains may not fully offset the petroleum shortfall.
The persistent production gaps threaten fiscal stability, underscoring the urgency for enhanced security measures, infrastructure repairs, and accelerated investment to safeguard budgetary commitments.
