The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s public external debt will rise sharply to $72.6 billion by 2027, the country’s next election year.
According to the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report released on Tuesday, public external debt is expected to increase from $51.9 billion in 2025 to $72.6 billion in 2027 representing a 39.9% rise over two years.
Election Spending Pressures
The Fund warned that elevated spending pressures linked to poverty reduction, food security needs, and the 2027 general elections could widen the fiscal deficit and push up borrowing requirements.
“Spending pressures from elevated poverty and food insecurity, including in the run-up to the elections, could widen fiscal deficit and increase financing needs,” the IMF stated.
Debt Trajectory and Risks
The report shows public external debt climbing to $66.5 billion in 2026 before reaching $72.6 billion in 2027. As a share of the economy, it is expected to rise from 17.9% of GDP in 2025 to 18.7% in 2027. Relative to exports of goods and services, the ratio is projected to increase from 82.9% to 104.3% over the same period.
Debt service costs are also expected to remain elevated. Public external debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services is forecast to rise from 8.1% in 2025 to 8.8% in 2027. Interest payments on public debt are projected to grow from $2 billion in 2025 to $3 billion by 2027.
At the Federal Government level, interest payments are expected to continue absorbing more than half of government revenue estimated at 53.2% in 2025, 53.7% in 2026, and 52.4% in 2027.
Total External Debt
Nigeria’s overall external debt stock (public and private) is projected to rise from $109.3 billion in 2025 to $132.0 billion by 2027.
The IMF’s projections align closely with recent data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), which reported public external debt at $51.86 billion as of December 31, 2025.
The report underscores growing concerns about Nigeria’s rising debt burden even as the country makes progress in macroeconomic stabilisation. It highlights the need for stronger revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management ahead of the 2027 elections.
