Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA) has edged up 13 percent over the past two years, while the Stabilisation Account surged more than threefold, according to a detailed review of briefings delivered by the Accountant-General of the Federation to the National Economic Council (NEC).
The analysis spans 15 NEC sessions from June 15, 2023, to October 23, 2025. The ECA balance grew from $473,754.57 at President Bola Tinubu’s first council meeting to $535,823.39 in the most recent update—a modest gain of $62,068.82.
In the same timeframe, the Stabilisation Account ballooned from N26.63 billion to N87.67 billion, marking a 229 percent leap of N61.03 billion. The Development of Natural Resources Fund advanced 46 percent, rising from N96.90 billion to N141.59 billion.
Monthly tracking shows the Stabilisation Fund dipped to N17.21 billion in April 2024 before rebounding steadily through 2025. The Natural Resources pool hit a low of N26.85 billion in November 2024, then climbed to N125.82 billion by September 2025 and N141.59 billion the following month.
The ECA remained largely stagnant for much of the period before gaining traction in the latter half of 2025.
Established in 2004 during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency, the ECA serves as a fiscal shock absorber, capturing oil revenues above budgeted benchmarks for future stability and investment. The Stabilisation Account provides a safety net for states and local governments during revenue shortfalls, while the Natural Resources Fund finances diversification into solid minerals and other non-oil sectors, with projects greenlit by the Federation Account Allocation Committee and NEC.
Despite the uptick under the current administration, the ECA remains a fraction of its peak. In 2008, under President Umaru Yar’Adua, it topped $20 billion during a global oil boom, only to dwindle through repeated drawdowns and market slumps in subsequent years.
Reforms and Recovery Drive Gains
The modest growth aligns with strategic NEC initiatives. In December 2023, the council revived an ad-hoc panel on crude theft and economic matters—originally formed in 2022 under Muhammadu Buhari—to tackle pipeline sabotage and production losses. At the time of reconstitution, daily output had plummeted to 700,000–800,000 barrels, far below OPEC commitments and exacerbating forex shortages. By 2025, production had rebounded to around 1.7 million barrels per day.
The council also greenlighted the $617.7 million i-DICE initiative to create digital jobs, advanced food-security policies, and endorsed power-sector overhauls. At its October 23, 2025, meeting, NEC authorized a nationwide operation against illegal gold exports and approved upgrades to security training facilities.
States tapped statutory allocations heavily amid soaring inflation, even as landmark reforms—including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate unification—worked to restore macroeconomic balance.
