Nigeria has achieved a major milestone in its long battle against fuel import dependence, with spending on imported refined petroleum products crashing by 54% over two years, according to fresh data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The country’s forex outflow for refined fuels like petrol, diesel, and kerosene fell from $14.58 billion in the first nine months of 2023 to $6.71 billion in the same period of 2025 a saving of $7.87 billion that has helped ease pressure on external reserves and support naira stability.
The decline unfolded gradually at first: import costs dropped to $11.38 billion in January–September 2024 (a 21.9% reduction from 2023), before accelerating sharply in 2025 with a further 41% cut of $4.67 billion. Quarterly figures for 2025 show the trend gaining momentum $3.26 billion in Q1, $1.80 billion in Q2, and just $1.65 billion in Q3 signaling consistent moderation as the year progressed.
This shift marks a turning point after decades of heavy reliance on imports, which drained billions in foreign exchange due to outdated refineries, underinvestment, and chronic production shortfalls.
The big catalysts? Policy boldness and private-sector muscle.
The removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 was the game-changer: higher pump prices immediately curbed excessive consumption, smuggling, and arbitrage opportunities that once inflated demand. Combined with tighter foreign exchange controls by the CBN, this slashed speculative imports and moderated overall volumes.
But the real hero of the story is domestic refining ramp-up. The $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki has emerged as the dominant force, flooding the market with locally produced fuels and forcing importers to compete on price and volume. Experts credit the refinery’s growing output — reportedly supplying 40–50 million litres of petroleum products daily in early 2026 — with directly correlating to the import moderation seen in CBN reports.
Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of petroleumprice.ng, hailed the numbers as proof of a major market transformation: “This 54% drop signals increased local production, largely driven by Dangote. The combination of expanding refining capacity and residual imports is steadily building Nigeria’s energy security.”
Even as imports fall, the country isn’t fully self-sufficient yet. Marketers still shelled out $6.71 billion in the first nine months of 2025, underscoring gaps in consistent domestic output, distribution logistics, and meeting peak demand surges.
Energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare offered a grounded perspective, warning against over-optimism: “Reliance on imports has declined significantly, but claims that importation has ended overstate reality. The market remains anchored on import parity — the credible option to import disciplines prices and provides risk management for disruptions, stock security, and refinery issues.”
The CBN’s data aligns with broader progress: Nigeria is gradually transitioning from net importer to net exporter of refined products in some categories, with Q3 2025 showing rising exports of refined fuels alongside declining imports.
For millions of Nigerians who have endured years of fuel queues, scarcity scares, and high costs, these figures represent real hope. Less money fleeing the country for foreign refineries means more forex for infrastructure, jobs, and economic stability.
As Dangote continues maintenance and pushes toward full capacity (with plans for even larger expansion), and as other rehabilitated facilities come online, the import curve could bend even further downward in 2026.
