Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, recorded a 4% month-on-month increase, reaching 1.737 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2025, up from 1.667 million bpd in December 2024, according to the latest report from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, oil output grew by 5.7%, compared to 1.643 million bpd recorded in January 2024. Despite this improvement, the country still fell short of its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was set based on an oil price of $75 per barrel. However, Nigeria successfully met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5 million bpd.
Breakdown of Nigeria’s Oil Production
According to the NUPRC report titled Crude Oil and Condensate Production, Nigeria’s oil production fluctuated between 1.66 million bpd at its lowest and 1.79 million bpd at its peak in January. The daily average production stood at 1.737 million bpd, comprising:
- Crude oil production: 1,538,697 bpd
- Condensate production: 198,783 bpd
This marks a positive trend in Nigeria’s oil sector as it gradually recovers from past disruptions, including oil theft and infrastructure challenges.
OPEC Confirms Growth in Nigeria’s Oil Output
In its February 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC further confirmed the upward trajectory of Nigeria’s oil production, excluding condensates. The report noted a 6.3% month-on-month increase, rising from 1.485 million bpd in December 2024 to 1.539 million bpd in January 2025.
On a year-on-year basis, oil production, excluding condensates, rose by 7.8%, compared to 1.427 million bpd recorded in January 2024.
Challenges and Outlook
While the increase in production signals a positive outlook, Nigeria still faces challenges in meeting its 2025 budget target of 2.06 million bpd. Experts cite ongoing oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational inefficiencies as key obstacles preventing the country from reaching its full production potential.
However, the government and industry stakeholders are making efforts to boost output by addressing security concerns in oil-producing regions and improving investment in the sector. With continued stability and strategic interventions, Nigeria’s oil industry could experience sustained growth in the coming months.
