The World Trade Organization has pointed to stagnating global goods trade growth in the second quarter of 2022, as global trade fell below the recent trend line for merchandise trade.
This is according to the recently released WTO Goods Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing concurrent data on the path of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends.
In the first quarter of 2022, global trade slowed to 3.2 percent, down from 5.7 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, the contracting growth in global trade was not only due to the war in Ukraine, but the COVID-19 containment in China through lockdowns significantly impacted trade in the first quarter.
The outlook remains uncertain and suggests that trade will remain weak for the second half of the year due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, mounting inflationary pressure, and hikes in interest rates in advanced economies, according to WTO.
The indices for most of the components of the trade barometer were below trend growth with the major exception of the container shipping index (103.2), which has risen firmly above trend (100) as shipments through Chinese ports have increased with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.
