The economic performance in the euro area and the European Union (EU) during the third quarter of 2023 has yielded mixed results. According to a preliminary flash estimate released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the seasonally adjusted GDP in the euro area decreased by 0.1%, while the EU saw a modest 0.1% increase compared to the previous quarter.
This report marks a notable change from the second quarter of 2023 when the euro area experienced a 0.2% growth, while the EU’s GDP remained stable. However, these preliminary estimates should be considered with caution as they are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.
When compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP showed a 0.1% increase both in the euro area and in the EU for the third quarter of 2023. In the previous quarter, the growth rates were more substantial, with the euro area at 0.5% and the EU at 0.4%.
Among the EU Member States for which data is available for the third quarter of 2023, Latvia recorded the highest increase of 0.6% compared to the previous quarter, followed by Belgium with 0.5% and Spain with 0.3%. On the other hand, Ireland faced the most significant decline at -1.8%, followed by Austria at -0.6%, and Czechia at -0.3%.
When looking at year-on-year growth, five countries experienced positive growth rates, with Portugal leading the way at +1.9%, followed by Spain at +1.8%, and Belgium at +1.5%. However, Ireland experienced a sharp decline at -4.7%, followed by Estonia at -2.5%, and Austria and Sweden, both at -1.2%.
While the economic outlook for the euro area and the EU remains a topic of interest, these preliminary figures offer an initial glimpse into the third quarter’s economic performance. As the data is subject to revisions, the final numbers may tell a more complete story.
The next set of estimates for the third quarter of 2023 will be released on November 14, 2023, providing a more comprehensive view of economic activity in the euro area and the EU.
– Euro Area (EA20) includes Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Finland.
– European Union (EU27) includes Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden.
Methods and Definitions:
European quarterly national accounts are compiled in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010). Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices measures the production activity of resident production units. Growth rates are based on chain-linked volumes.
The preliminary flash estimate of the third quarter of 2023 GDP growth presented in this release is based on the data of 19 Member States, covering 96% of euro area GDP and 94% of EU GDP. Further details about the methodology and estimation process can be found in the statistical working papers provided by Eurostat.