Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 14.45 percent in November 2025, easing from the 16.05 percent recorded in October and falling below the Federal Government’s 15 percent target for the year. The latest figures were released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The 1.6 percentage-point drop month-on-month signals a notable moderation in price pressures after a prolonged period of elevated inflation across the economy. The November outcome represents a key milestone for the administration of President Bola Tinubu, which had projected a significant slowdown in inflation by the end of 2025.
According to the NBS, headline inflation also declined on a year-on-year basis, although the comparison reflects a different base year. On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at 1.22 percent in November, slightly higher than the 0.93 percent recorded in October. This indicates that while overall inflation has eased, the pace of price increases accelerated marginally during the month.
Urban and Rural Inflation Trends
Data from the statistics agency show a sharp moderation in both urban and rural inflation rates. Urban inflation dropped to 13.61 percent year-on-year in November 2025, down significantly from 37.10 percent recorded in the same month of 2024. Month-on-month, urban inflation slowed to 0.95 percent, compared with 1.14 percent in October.
The twelve-month average urban inflation rate stood at 20.80 percent, representing a substantial decline from 35.07 percent recorded a year earlier.
In rural areas, inflation was reported at 15.15 percent year-on-year, easing from 32.27 percent in November 2024. This reflects a decrease of over 17 percentage points, highlighting broad-based moderation in price levels across the country.
Food Inflation Declines Sharply
Food inflation—a major driver of overall inflation in Nigeria—also recorded a significant slowdown. The NBS reported a year-on-year food inflation rate of 11.08 percent in November 2025, down from 39.93 percent in November 2024. The agency attributed much of the sharp decline to changes in the base year used for computation.
Despite the lower headline figure, the NBS noted continued increases in the average prices of several food items, including dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, eggs, ground pepper, crayfish, egusi, oxtail, fresh onions, and shelled periwinkle.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 18.04 percent year-on-year in November, indicating persistent underlying price pressures in non-food components of the economy.
Policy Context
The latest inflation data align with President Tinubu’s economic projections announced in December 2025 during the presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly. At the time, the President pledged to reduce inflation from 34.6 percent to 15 percent by the end of the year.
With November’s inflation rate now below the 15 percent benchmark, analysts say the outcome reflects the combined effects of tighter monetary policy, fiscal reforms, and recent improvements in macroeconomic stability. However, sustained moderation will depend on continued policy discipline, food supply stability, and exchange rate management in the months ahead.
