The naira has kicked off the new year on a firmer footing, posting a modest year-to-date gain of 0.8% in the official foreign exchange market and reversing some of the pressure that built up in late 2025.
Central Bank of Nigeria data shows the local currency has appreciated by N10.81 since trading resumed on January 2, 2026. After opening the year at N1,430.85 to the dollar on Tuesday, it strengthened to N1,420.04 by Wednesday before a minor daily setback of 38 kobo on Thursday.
In the parallel market, rates have remained remarkably steady at around N1,490 per dollar, according to bureau de change operators in Lagos and Abuja, keeping the gap between official and street prices relatively contained.
Supporting the naira’s early resilience, Nigeria’s external reserves continued their upward climb, reaching $45.77 billion as of January 13 — another incremental build that gives the CBN more firepower for market interventions.
The improved tone follows a notable rebound in dollar supply during December 2025. Total foreign exchange inflows jumped 38% month-on-month to $2.8 billion, recovering sharply from November’s 67% slump. While still the second-weakest monthly figure in the past 16 months, the uptick was driven largely by the Central Bank stepping up its presence.
CBN forex sales more than doubled to $654 million in December from $318 million the month before, providing critical liquidity at a time when offshore portfolio investors remained cautious. Domestic corporate dollar contributions dipped 5% to $420 million, but gains from exporters, individuals, and a surprise surge in foreign direct investment helped offset the shortfall.
Analysts at FBNQuest described the CBN’s heavier involvement as a deliberate strategy to bridge the liquidity gap left by subdued foreign participation. “With portfolio inflows still muted after the usual year-end slowdown, the apex bank has effectively become the market’s main supplier,” one senior economist noted. “It’s a short-term fix, but it has helped steady the naira heading into 2026.”
For businesses and households, the calmer official rate offers some breathing room on import costs and planning, even as the parallel market premium reminds everyone that dollar scarcity hasn’t vanished entirely.
Market watchers say the naira’s ability to hold — and even gain — ground in the opening weeks of the year is an encouraging sign that the combination of rising reserves, selective CBN interventions, and seasonal demand moderation could keep volatility in check, at least through the first quarter.
Whether the early strength proves durable will depend heavily on sustained oil earnings, diaspora remittances, and any pickup in foreign investor interest as global conditions evolve. For now, after a turbulent 2025, the naira’s quiet start to 2026 is being greeted with cautious relief across trading floors and boardrooms alike.
