Nigeria recorded a significant slowdown in headline inflation to 15.15% year-on-year in December 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced today, following a comprehensive review and rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology.
The new figure represents a sharp deceleration from the 17.33% revised rate for November 2025 and marks a dramatic improvement compared with the 34.80% recorded in December 2024 — a drop of 19.65 percentage points over the 12-month period.
The CPI itself rose modestly to 131.2 points in December from 130.5 points in November, translating to a month-on-month inflation rate of just 0.54%, down from 1.22% the previous month. This indicates that price pressures eased considerably in the final month of the year.
The NBS explained that the headline rate reflects a change in calculation approach to align with international standards (IMF CPI Manual and ECOWAS Harmonised CPI framework). Instead of using a single-month base, the rebased index now employs a twelve-month average for 2024 set to 100, avoiding artificial distortions from base effects. This methodological shift also prompted an upward revision of November’s inflation to 17.33% from the earlier reported 14.45%.
Food inflation — long the main driver of headline figures — showed one of the most notable improvements, falling to 10.84% year-on-year from 39.84% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, food prices actually declined by 0.36%, reversing November’s 1.13% increase. The NBS attributed the relief to lower costs for key staples including tomatoes, garri, eggs, grains, vegetables, beans, and fresh onions.
Core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy items) also moderated to 18.63% year-on-year from 29.28% a year earlier, with a month-on-month rate of 0.58%. The twelve-month average food inflation stood at 22.00%, while the core twelve-month average remained elevated at 23.49%.
Urban inflation eased to 14.85% year-on-year (from 37.29%), while rural inflation fell to 14.56%. At the state level, Abia posted the highest year-on-year rate at 19.03%, followed by Ogun (18.80%) and Katsina (18.66%). Sokoto recorded the lowest at 8.61%. The NBS cautioned that interstate comparisons should be interpreted carefully due to differences in consumption patterns and CPI weighting.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation (6.06 percentage points), followed by restaurants and accommodation services (1.96 points), transport (1.62 points), and housing/water/electricity/gas (1.28 points).
The twelve-month average headline inflation for the year stood at 23.01%, reflecting the cumulative impact of price movements throughout 2025.
Economists view the December figures as an encouraging sign that earlier policy measures — including subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, tighter monetary policy, and improved agricultural supply — are beginning to bear fruit in taming inflation. However, the still-elevated levels in core and average rates highlight the need for sustained reforms to achieve single-digit inflation in the medium term.
