Nigeria’s crude oil production experienced a minor decline to 1.42 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January 2024, as revealed by the latest report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This slight reduction of 3,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 0.21% from December’s production figures, according to secondary sources, reflects a marginal fluctuation in the country’s oil output.
The Federal Government’s projection for crude oil production in the 2024 budget was set at 1.78 million barrels per day. However, the actual output for January fell short of this target, highlighting potential challenges in meeting the budgetary forecasts.
President Bola Tinubu, in the 2024 budget proposal, had emphasized the need for Nigeria to surpass its current crude oil production levels. With crude oil proceeds constituting a significant portion of the government’s revenue, meeting or exceeding production targets is crucial for sustaining fiscal stability and economic growth.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report for February 2024 further detailed that while Nigeria’s oil production saw a nominal decline, other OPEC member states such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela experienced an increase in crude oil output. The total crude production among the 12 OPEC states averaged 26.34 mbpd in January, representing a decrease of 350,000 bpd from the previous month.
Globally, preliminary data indicated a slight reduction in global liquids production in January, amounting to an average of 101.8 mbpd compared to the previous month. The report highlighted decreases in oil production primarily in the United States and other Eurasian countries, offset partially by rises in China, Canada, and Brazil.
Furthermore, the share of OPEC crude oil in total global production declined marginally to 25.9% in January, down by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month.
OPEC’s assessments and estimates are based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, OPEC Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs), and non-conventional oil, while assessments for OPEC crude production rely on secondary sources.
Notably, Nigeria’s crude oil production had risen to 1.418 mbpd in December 2023, as reported in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for January 2024. The country experienced a significant increase of 100 bpd from November’s production figures, according to secondary sources.
The fluctuating trends in Nigeria’s crude oil production underscore the importance of closely monitoring output levels and implementing strategies to ensure consistency and resilience in the face of global market dynamics and domestic challenges.
