Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has declined to $835.49 in 2025, reflecting a 4.74% drop from the $877.07 recorded in 2024, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The report highlights a persistent downward trend in Nigeria’s GDP per capita since 2014, when it stood at a high of $3,220. GDP per capita is a critical indicator of a country’s economic health, measuring the average income per person by dividing the total value of goods and services produced within the country by its population.
Projected Economic Recovery
Despite the decline, the IMF forecasts an economic rebound, with GDP per capita expected to rise in 2026 and 2027 and cross the $1,000 mark by 2028, reaching an estimated $1,040.
Nigeria’s economic position remains in line with many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where GDP per capita falls within the $500 to $2,500 range, with some nations even below $500.
GDP Rebasing and Economic Transformation
The decline comes as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) undertakes a rebasing of the country’s GDP to better reflect emerging sectors of the economy. The rebased GDP will now consider activities in digital economy, pension funds, health insurance, modular refineries, mining, and even informal employment sectors.
Positive Business Sentiment Despite Challenges
Despite economic headwinds, business confidence in Nigeria remains strong. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Stanbic IBTC Bank indicates that business activity and new orders continued to grow in early 2025. The PMI report suggests that private sector optimism is rising, with companies expanding their workforce in response to increasing demand.
According to Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC, “Nigeria’s private sector activity continued its improvement in January 2025, with businesses recording increased output and new orders despite lingering challenges.”
However, inflation remains a significant concern. In 2024, Nigeria’s inflation rate averaged 33.1%, driven by foreign exchange depreciation, rising petrol prices, and supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather conditions.
Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook
The IMF projects Nigeria’s GDP to grow by 3.2% in 2025, while inflation is expected to decline to 25%. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), however, offers a more optimistic outlook, forecasting a potential GDP growth rate of 5.5%—if stability-focused economic reforms are maintained.
Similarly, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, predicts that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.1% in 2025, supported by factors such as stable crude oil prices, increased domestic oil production, and refining capacity from the Dangote refinery and other revitalized refineries.
Cardoso emphasized that sustaining economic growth will require effective collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities alongside private sector participation.
Bottom Line
While Nigeria faces ongoing economic challenges, government reforms, increased investment in key industries, and a projected decline in inflation could pave the way for stronger economic recovery in the coming years.
