Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged down slightly to 15.06% in February 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The figure represents a modest improvement from 15.10% recorded in January 2026.
The CPI, which tracks the average change in prices paid by urban and rural households for goods and services, rose to 130.0 in February from 127.4 the previous month.
While the year-on-year headline rate showed continued moderation down from 28.49% in urban areas and 22.73% in rural areas in February 2025 the month-on-month trend revealed renewed pressure. Headline inflation accelerated to 2.01% month-on-month in February, a sharp reversal from the -2.88% contraction seen in January.
Urban inflation stood at 15.53% year-on-year (down from 28.49% a year earlier) but climbed 2.55% month-on-month. Rural inflation was 13.93% year-on-year (compared with 22.73% in February 2025) and rose 0.71% month-on-month.
Food inflation, a major driver of overall price levels, moderated significantly on an annual basis to 12.12% in February from 26.98% in the same month of 2025. The 12-month average food inflation rate through February 2026 stood at 19.08%, a substantial drop from 37.40% a year earlier.
However, monthly food price pressures intensified sharply, jumping to 4.69% month-on-month reversing the -6.02% recorded in January. The NBS highlighted price increases in staples and key items including beans, carrots, okazi leaf, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, yam flour, snails, ogbono (dried and unground), and cow peas.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy components, followed a similar pattern: it eased to 15.88% year-on-year from 25.66% in February 2025, with the 12-month average at 22.00% (down from 27.25%). On a monthly basis, core inflation rose to 0.89% from -1.69% in January.
The latest data reflect ongoing progress in taming annual inflation consistent with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s December 2025 projection of an average headline rate of 12.94% for 2026, driven by expected easing in food costs and premium motor spirit (petrol) prices.
Yet the acceleration in month-on-month rates signals that short-term pressures persist, particularly in food and urban markets. Analysts attribute the rebound to seasonal factors, supply chain constraints, and lingering effects of global commodity volatility.
The NBS figures come as policymakers monitor the interplay between monetary tightening, reserve build-up, and domestic supply dynamics. With headline inflation now in the mid-teens down more than 12 percentage points from January 2025 levels the economy shows signs of disinflationary momentum, though the pace remains gradual and vulnerable to external shocks and local price movements.
