Nigeria’s average daily oil production, including condensates, rose to 1.652 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first eleven months of 2025, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The figure represents a 7% year-on-year increase from the 1.544 million bpd averaged during the same period in 2024.
Despite this growth, the nation’s output remained below the 2.06 million bpd production target set in the 2025 budget. Production for November 2025 was 1.599 million bpd, only marginally higher than the 1.597 million bpd recorded in October.
The shortfall in production, coupled with lower-than-anticipated global oil prices and exchange rate assumptions, has prompted the government to adopt more conservative benchmarks for its 2026 fiscal plan. The new budget is based on a daily production estimate of 1.84 million barrels and an oil price of $64.85 per barrel, a reduction from the 2025 price benchmark of $75.
In his budget presentation, President Bola Tinubu cited improved oil output, bolstered by enhanced security measures, technological deployment, and industry reforms. He also highlighted significant growth in non-oil revenues through better tax administration.
“Oil production has improved… Non-oil revenues have expanded significantly,” President Tinubu stated. “Investor confidence is returning, reflected in capital inflows, renewed project financing, and stronger private-sector participation.”
The President further noted that Nigeria’s external reserves have risen to approximately $47 billion, a seven-year high providing over ten months of import cover and strengthening the economy’s buffer against external shocks.
