Nigeria is staring down a sobering social and economic reality: poverty is deepening, and fast. By 2026, as many as 62 per cent of Nigerians about 141 million people could be living below the poverty line, according to a new outlook by PwC, underscoring how rising living costs are outpacing income growth across the country.
The projection, contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 titled “Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth,” suggests that recent policy efforts to steady the economy may not translate into immediate relief for households. While macro indicators may be improving at the surface, everyday Nigerians are still struggling to keep up with inflation and shrinking purchasing power.
At the heart of the problem is income stagnation. PwC estimates that real income growth will remain too weak in the near term to counter persistent price pressures, even as inflation shows signs of gradual moderation. For millions of households, this means earning more naira on paper but being able to buy less with it.
The impact is most severe among low-income families, where food accounts for as much as 70 per cent of total spending. With food inflation still elevated, these households are disproportionately exposed to price shocks. PwC warns that high energy costs, logistics bottlenecks and exchange-rate pass-through effects will continue to keep food and essential goods expensive, limiting any meaningful improvement in affordability.
Beyond the human toll, the economic implications are equally troubling. A swelling poverty population could drag down domestic consumption, weaken productivity, and stretch public finances as more Nigerians require government support at a time of limited fiscal space.
The grim outlook aligns with recent findings from the World Bank, which notes that Nigeria’s poverty burden has expanded dramatically over the past few years. The number of Nigerians living in poverty has surged from about 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025, placing nearly two-thirds of the population below the poverty line. The pace has been particularly alarming: an estimated 14 million people slipped into poverty between 2023 and 2024 alone.
Both PwC and the World Bank agree that reversing this trend will require more than macroeconomic stabilisation. Targeted job creation, productivity-enhancing reforms, and effective social protection programmes are seen as critical to preventing further deterioration. Without them, Nigeria risks entrenching poverty as a structural challenge—one that could undermine long-term growth, social stability, and economic resilience.
As policymakers look ahead, the message from the data is clear: stabilising the economy is only the first step. Turning that stability into broad-based prosperity remains Nigeria’s most urgent test.
