Nigeria’s external position is set to strengthen further next year, with the country projected to record a significantly larger current account surplus, according to fresh estimates from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The apex bank expects the surplus to climb to $18.81 billion in 2026, underscoring the impact of rising exports, steady remittance inflows, and ongoing reforms in key sectors of the economy.
The projection, contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, represents an improvement from the estimated $16.94 billion surplus recorded in 2025. In relative terms, the surplus is expected to account for 11.16 per cent of Nigeria’s gross domestic product, compared with 10.94 per cent the previous year.
Export Growth Takes Centre Stage
At the heart of the improved outlook is a stronger goods account, driven by rising export earnings. The CBN forecasts total exports to increase to $58.26 billion in 2026 from $54.59 billion in 2025, supported by gains in both oil and non-oil segments.
Oil exports are expected to benefit from higher crude production, as security conditions around oil infrastructure improve and investment in the sector deepens. On the non-oil front, agricultural products and fertiliser exports are projected to maintain their upward momentum, helped by targeted government initiatives to fix long-standing bottlenecks in Nigeria’s export value chain.
According to the CBN, recently introduced frameworks such as the National Export Trading Company and the National Intellectual Property Policy are expected to unlock new opportunities, particularly for value-added and creative exports.
Imports and Services Still a Drag
Despite the positive export story, pressures remain on other parts of the external account. Total imports are projected to rise to $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting stronger demand for capital goods as economic activity expands.
The services account is also expected to post a wider deficit of $13.68 billion, up from $12.80 billion the previous year. This is linked to higher spending on business and transport services, including increased research and development costs and rising freight charges tied to growing non-oil imports.
In addition, the primary income account is forecast to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion, driven by higher interest and dividend payments to foreign investors. While attractive domestic yields are expected to sustain foreign portfolio inflows, they also come with increased income repatriation, which weighs on the current account.
Remittances Provide a Buffer
One of the strongest cushions for Nigeria’s external balance continues to be diaspora remittances. The CBN projects the secondary income account to record a surplus of $26.13 billion in 2026, up from $23.82 billion in 2025. Beyond household support, some of these inflows are expected to finance heightened economic and political activities around the election period.
A Mixed but Improving Picture
Overall, the projected rise in Nigeria’s current account surplus reflects gains from oil sector reforms, export diversification efforts, and resilient remittance flows. However, it also highlights persistent structural challenges, including heavy import dependence, widening services deficits, and rising income outflows linked to foreign investment.
For policymakers, the outlook suggests that while progress is being made, sustaining external stability will depend on deepening export competitiveness, managing import growth, and strengthening domestic capacity across key sectors of the economy.
