The United States posted a $1.45 billion goods trade surplus with Nigeria in the first ten months of 2025 a dramatic reversal from the $1.37 billion deficit recorded during the same period in 2024 driven by a sharp 60% increase in American exports and a decline in Nigerian shipments, according to the latest figures from the US Census Bureau.
Between January and October 2025, US exports to Nigeria rose to $5.94 billion, up $2.23 billion (60.2%) from $3.71 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. Imports from Nigeria fell to $4.49 billion, down $582 million (11.5%) from $5.07 billion the previous year, flipping the bilateral trade balance firmly in Washington’s favour.
The shift was evident on a monthly basis as well. In October 2025 alone, the US recorded a $162 million surplus, exporting $532 million worth of goods while importing $369 million. This represented a 40% month-on-month improvement from September’s $116 million surplus. Year-on-year, October exports surged 80.3% ($237 million higher than October 2024), while imports declined 7.3% ($29 million lower).
The trade turnaround has had a notable impact on US–Africa trade dynamics. While the United States still ran a $3.74 billion goods trade deficit with the African continent overall in the first ten months of 2025 (exports $34.08 billion, imports $37.82 billion), Nigeria’s surplus offset nearly 28% of that shortfall. Without Nigeria’s $1.447 billion positive balance, the US deficit with Africa would have widened to approximately $5.18 billion.
Nigeria accounted for 17.4% of all US exports to Africa ($5.94 billion) and 11.9% of US imports from the continent ($4.49 billion). In October, Nigeria represented 15.6% of US exports to Africa and 12.8% of imports, and contributed roughly 31% of the continent’s monthly US trade surplus.
Among major African trading partners, only Egypt delivered a larger surplus to the US in 2025 ($5.43 billion), with exports of $7.88 billion and imports of $2.44 billion. South Africa remained a significant drag, contributing a $9.22 billion deficit, while Algeria posted a $1.09 billion shortfall.
The sharp rise in US exports to Nigeria coincides with the implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff regime, which raised Nigeria’s tariff rate on non-oil exports from 14% to 15% effective August 7, 2025. Crude oil shipments have largely been exempted from the higher duties, but the policy appears to have dampened demand for other Nigerian goods in the US market, contributing to the import decline that underpinned the surplus.
Analysts say the data reflects broader shifts in global trade flows under the current US administration’s tariff-focused approach. While the surplus benefits the US trade balance, it highlights Nigeria’s continued reliance on oil exports and vulnerability to external policy changes. Diversifying export products and strengthening non-oil trade ties will be critical to narrowing the bilateral gap in the long term.
The figures also underscore Nigeria’s growing weight in US–Africa trade relations. As one of the few major African economies delivering a surplus to Washington, Nigeria’s performance has helped soften the overall continental deficit picture at a time when protectionist policies are reshaping global supply chains.
