The naira ranked among the more resilient African currencies in the second quarter of 2026, even as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices put pressure on exchange rates across the continent, the World Bank has reported.
According to the Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, the naira’s maximum depreciation between March and June was limited to 2.6 per cent—well below the losses sustained by several peer currencies.
Ghana’s cedi recorded the steepest decline among the currencies examined, falling by as much as 10 per cent. The currencies of South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia and Eswatini dropped by up to 7.2 per cent, while those of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda weakened by as much as 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.
The World Bank analysed exchange-rate movements in 22 African countries outside the CFA franc zone, measuring performance against levels recorded before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Partial Recovery by August
The naira subsequently recovered some of the ground lost earlier in the year. By August it had strengthened 1.9 per cent from its March-to-June lows, placing it among the currencies that regained value after the period of heightened pressure.
Several regional peers remained weaker. Ghana’s cedi was still 2.5 per cent below its end-February level in August, Uganda’s currency was down 3.1 per cent, and South Sudan posted one of the largest remaining declines at 5.5 per cent. Only 10 of the 22 currencies tracked were still weaker than their end-February positions by the end of August.
Oil Earnings Provided a Buffer
Nigeria’s status as a major crude-oil exporter helped cushion the naira, the World Bank noted. The rise in oil prices increased export receipts and foreign-exchange inflows for producers such as Nigeria and Angola, partially offsetting external pressures. In contrast, higher energy costs weighed more heavily on countries that rely extensively on imported fuel and other energy products.
The broader currency sell-off across African markets was also driven by stronger demand for US dollars, capital outflows from emerging and frontier markets, and concerns about the rising cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt.
The relative resilience of the naira comes against the backdrop of the World Bank’s more positive outlook for Nigerian economic growth.
