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CBN Signals Path to Single-Digit Inflation with Shift to Inflation-Targeting Framework

Stephen Akudike by Stephen Akudike
March 23, 2026
in Economy
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Navigating Inflation Crossroads: Nigeria’s Economic Odyssey Amidst Global Trends
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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving single-digit inflation as it advances toward a full inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, according to a statement released on March 22, 2026, following an engagement with the Nigerian Economic Society and academic stakeholders in Abuja on March 18.

CBN Deputy Governor (Economic Policy) Dr Muhammad Abdullahi described the transition as a “significant shift toward a transparent, forward-looking, and rules-based monetary policy system anchored in long-term price stability.” He emphasised that the framework would serve as a credible nominal anchor, helping to shape expectations, reduce risk premia, and support sustainable investment and growth.

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Abdullahi highlighted that ongoing global uncertainties—such as geopolitical tensions and volatile energy prices—make a reliable monetary anchor especially critical for emerging economies like Nigeria. He pointed to several foundational reforms already implemented to facilitate the shift, including:

– A return to orthodox monetary policy tools
– Gradual withdrawal from quasi-fiscal activities
– Unification of exchange rates and introduction of electronic FX trading platforms
– Strengthened banking sector recapitalisation and prudential oversight
– Improved coordination with fiscal authorities

These measures, he said, are yielding tangible results. Headline inflation has declined sharply from 34.8% in late 2024 to 15.1% by early 2026, driven by sustained tightening and enhanced policy discipline. The latest National Bureau of Statistics data showed a further marginal easing to 15.06% in February 2026.

Looking ahead, the CBN outlined a medium-term target of guiding inflation into a single-digit range of 6–9%, barring major external shocks. Abdullahi stressed that success will hinge on continued policy consistency, well-anchored expectations, and institutional credibility.

Director of the Monetary Policy Department, Dr Victor Oboh, underscored the importance of collaboration with the academic community. He noted that effective inflation targeting relies not only on technical design but also on public trust, clear communication, and evidence-based research to shape narratives and influence expectations.

President of the Nigerian Economic Society, Dr Baba Yusuf Musa, commended the CBN’s reform direction, stating: “Nigeria needs a credible Central Bank, and the Nigerian Economic Society needs a Central Bank worth standing with.” Participants from universities and policy institutions expressed broad support for the transition, viewing it as a vital step toward macroeconomic stability.

The CBN’s engagement reflects its broader strategy to rebuild policy credibility, reduce volatility, and create a more predictable environment for investment and growth as Nigeria navigates domestic and global challenges.

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