Nigeria’s tax collections have risen by 113 per cent in less than three years, climbing from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026, according to the Nigeria Revenue Service.
The agency attributed the sharp increase to the digitisation of the tax system, the passage of four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service itself, and an executive order designed to close loopholes. In an internal report on the state of the economy obtained by The PUNCH, the NRS said the country is shifting from a period of severe macroeconomic distress toward greater stability and resilience following reforms introduced by the President Bola Tinubu administration under its Renewed Hope Agenda.
Drivers of the Revenue Jump
The revenue service linked the turnaround to the President’s determination to tackle long-standing economic distortions. It listed four major challenges inherited by the administration: an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign-exchange system that discouraged investment, a poorly performing oil sector, and a tax base that was far below its potential.
While the early stages of reform created significant difficulties, the NRS maintained that key economic indicators have since improved. It pointed to moderating inflation, a turnaround in the balance of payments, higher crude oil production, Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of petroleum products, and the more than doubling of tax collections as evidence of recovery.
Oil Production and Trade Shift
Crude oil output rose from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, equivalent to 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota. The naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other domestic refiners helped transform the country from a long-term net importer of petroleum products into a net exporter. The report noted that Ghana has begun pursuing a similar approach.
Exports of other oil products, excluding crude, increased 51 per cent year-on-year to N6.78 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Overall trade recorded a surplus of N7.55 trillion in the same quarter, up from a marginal N44.7 billion earlier.
Reserves, Capital Flows and Markets
External reserves climbed from an unrestricted $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026, described as a 17-year high. The balance of payments swung from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
Annual capital importation rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, with inflows reaching $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Foreign portfolio investment was particularly strong, while foreign direct investment also improved. The Nigerian Exchange’s market capitalisation expanded from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026, which the NRS said created wealth for millions of investors. The market rally was attributed partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, bank recapitalisation and stronger domestic institutional investment.
Broader Social and Sectoral Gains
The minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026. United Nations Children’s Fund estimates cited in the report showed the number of out-of-school children declining from 20 million to 18.3 million following government policies and incentives.
In response to the removal of the petrol subsidy, the compressed natural gas programme expanded rapidly. From having no large-scale CNG initiative three years earlier, Nigeria had converted more than 100,000 vehicles by 2026, mobilised over $2 billion in investment and created more than 10,000 jobs. CNG is estimated to cut running costs by 40–60 per cent compared with petrol; some commercial drivers reported monthly fuel bills falling from about N50,000 to N18,000.
On food security, the administration declared a state of emergency in July 2023 and introduced measures including the release of strategic grain reserves, a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation. Federal agricultural allocation rose from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026.
