Five members of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favour of reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points at the November 2025 meeting, according to their individual statements released by the apex bank.
The dissenting group — representing 41.7% of the 12-member committee — proposed lowering the MPR from 27.0% to 26.5% while adjusting the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450 basis points and keeping all other parameters unchanged. The majority ultimately decided to hold the rate steady at 27.0%, citing ongoing inflation risks despite recent progress on the macroeconomic front.
The five members who advocated easing included:
– Aku Pauline Odinkemelu, who described Nigeria’s disinflation as “entrenched and broad-based” after seven consecutive months of headline inflation moderation, improved food supply, and rising external reserves. She argued that a modest cut would support productive sector recovery without jeopardising price stability, given the continued effectiveness of tight liquidity controls.
– Aloysius Uche Ordu, who pointed to global easing cycles among advanced and emerging-market central banks, alongside Nigeria’s stronger external position, stable exchange rate, capital inflows, and declining inflation. He called for a calibrated reduction to maintain growth momentum.
– Bandele A. G. Amoo, who focused on weak credit transmission to the real economy. He contended that a small rate cut — combined with strict cash reserve requirements — could encourage banks to channel more funds into agriculture, manufacturing, and other productive areas ahead of seasonal demand pressures.
– Lamido Abubakar Yuguda, former Director General of the Securities & Exchange Commission, who described the case for easing as “compelling.” He highlighted significant inflation moderation, robust non-oil sector growth, and improved foreign reserves, emphasising that the proposed adjustment was modest, forward-looking, and compatible with monetary discipline through high reserve and liquidity ratios.
– Murtala Sabo Sagagi, who framed his position around the lagged effects of prior tightening already delivering results. He supported a measured cut to stimulate inclusive growth, with the asymmetric corridor acting as a safeguard against excess liquidity destabilising the exchange rate or reigniting inflation.
All five dissenting members aligned on retaining other key parameters: Cash Reserve Ratio at 45% for deposit money banks, 16% for merchant banks, and 75% on non-Treasury Single Account public sector deposits; Liquidity Ratio at 30%; and narrowing the standing facilities corridor to +50/-450 basis points to discourage idle funds at the CBN and promote interbank lending.
The majority’s decision to hold reflected continued caution. While headline inflation had eased to 16.05% in October 2025, members cited risks from seasonal fiscal spending, election-related pressures, and potential exchange-rate shocks. They stressed the need to fully transmit earlier tightening measures and anchor inflation expectations.
The split vote highlights an evolving internal debate within the MPC as disinflation takes hold, external buffers strengthen, and growth shows resilience. The sizeable minority favouring easing suggests that a gradual pivot toward looser policy could gain traction in future meetings if inflation continues trending downward and stability is maintained.
Nigeria’s headline inflation later fell further to 15.15% in December 2025 following a methodological rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics. Analysts now widely expect the next MPC meeting — scheduled for February 23–24, 2026 — to deliver the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began, potentially bringing the MPR down to 26.5% or lower.
The November minutes underscore the CBN’s careful balancing act: preserving hard-won credibility on inflation while recognising growing calls to support credit expansion and real-economy recovery. The coming weeks will test whether the disinflation momentum is strong enough to shift the committee’s centre of gravity toward growth-oriented measures.
