Nigeria recorded a slight moderation in headline inflation for January 2026, with the rate falling to 15.10% year-on-year from 15.15% in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on February 16, 2026.
The 0.05 percentage point decrease marks the tenth consecutive monthly slowdown in inflation, reflecting ongoing relief in consumer price pressures at the start of the year. On a year-on-year comparison, the January 2026 figure represents a substantial 12.51 percentage point drop from the 27.61% recorded in January 2025, highlighting significant progress in taming inflation over the past 12 months.
A notable shift occurred on a month-on-month basis, where the headline rate contracted by 2.88% in January—contrasting with the 0.54% increase seen in December. This indicates that the average cost of goods and services actually declined relative to the previous month. The 12-month average inflation rate ending January 2026 stood at 21.97%, up 4.37 percentage points from the prior year’s equivalent period, underscoring that while recent trends are positive, cumulative pressures remain elevated.
Food Inflation Provides Major Relief
The most substantial contribution to the easing came from food inflation, which constitutes a major share of household expenditure. Year-on-year food inflation plunged to 8.89% in January 2026—a dramatic 20.73 percentage point reduction from 29.63% a year earlier—marking its entry into single-digit territory for the first time in over a decade.
Month-on-month, food prices fell by 6.02%, deepening from the 0.36% contraction in December. The NBS linked this improvement to lower average prices for key staples, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas. The 12-month average food inflation rate for the period ending January 2026 was 20.29%, a sharp decline from 38.47% in January 2025.
Core Inflation and Urban-Rural Trends
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, moderated to 17.72% year-on-year in January, down 7.55 percentage points from 25.27% in January 2025. On a monthly basis, it contracted by 1.69%, compared to a 0.58% rise in December. The 12-month average core rate stood at 22.84%, reflecting a 4.40 percentage point improvement over the previous year.
Urban areas experienced headline inflation of 15.36% year-on-year, a 14.09 percentage point drop from 29.45% in January 2025, with a month-on-month contraction of 2.72%. The 12-month urban average was 22.30%. Rural inflation followed suit at 14.44% year-on-year (down 10.60 points from 25.04%), with a steeper monthly decline of 3.29%. The rural 12-month average eased to 21.03%.
The continued downward trajectory in inflation, particularly in food and core categories, signals improving supply conditions and policy impacts. Market observers note that this development precedes the Central Bank of Nigeria’s first monetary policy decision of 2026, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate adjustments. While the single-digit food inflation milestone offers welcome respite to households, sustained efforts will be needed to address underlying structural factors and maintain the disinflation momentum.
