Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals that Nigeria’s trade with other African countries increased by N610 billion in the first half of 2025, reaching a total of N4.82 trillion, up from N4.21 trillion in the same period of 2024. This growth underscores the strength of intra-African trade, despite challenges posed by the naira’s significant depreciation.
Quarterly Trade Trends
The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in trade, dropping to N1.86 trillion from N2.24 trillion in Q1 2024. However, a robust recovery in the second quarter pushed trade volumes to N2.97 trillion, compared to N1.98 trillion in Q2 2024, driving the overall increase for the half-year.
Expnbsort-Led Growth
Exports were the primary driver of this growth, totaling N4.82 trillion in H1 2025, compared to N4.21 trillion in H1 2024. The second quarter was particularly strong, with exports rising to N2.97 trillion from N1.97 trillion in Q2 2024. Imports also increased, reaching N1.82 trillion in H1 2025 from N1.13 trillion the previous year, though their growth was less pronounced.
Trade Surplus and Challenges
Nigeria maintained its position as a net exporter, recording a trade surplus of N2.99 trillion in H1 2025, slightly down from N3.08 trillion in H1 2024. The surplus narrowed in Q1 2025 due to a surge in imports to N1.00 trillion (up from N401.8 billion in Q1 2024) and a slight decline in exports to N1.85 trillion. However, the trade balance rebounded in Q2, reaching N2.15 trillion as exports outpaced imports.
Currency Depreciation Impact
When measured in U.S. dollars, Nigeria’s trade performance appears less robust due to the naira’s 80% depreciation since 2019. Total trade with Africa in H1 2025 was valued at $3.13 billion, a modest increase from $2.89 billion in H1 2024, but significantly lower than the $4.51 billion recorded in 2019. Exports in H1 2025 reached $1.95 billion, up from $1.76 billion in 2024, while imports rose to $1.19 billion from $1.13 billion. The naira’s weakened value (N1,538.50 to the dollar in 2025 versus N306.73 in 2019) inflates naira-denominated trade figures, masking weaker hard-currency volumes.
Shift Toward African Markets
Amid strained trade relations with the United States, Nigeria is increasingly focusing on African markets. U.S. imports of Nigerian goods fell sharply by 41% from $639 million in June 2025 to $379 million in July, driven partly by a U.S. tariff increase from 14% to 15% on Nigerian exports. The looming expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) further threatens Nigeria’s access to the U.S. market, particularly for non-oil sectors like textiles and agriculture.
Policy Response
Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, emphasized a measured approach, stating, “We are focused on reforms and diversification, prioritizing domestic investors and expanding market access for Nigerian businesses.” This strategy aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s eight-point agenda, aiming to strengthen intra-African trade and reduce reliance on volatile global markets
