The United States purchased $643.1 million worth of Nigerian goods in the first two months of 2025, just weeks ahead of the scheduled implementation of new U.S. tariffs on imported products.
According to trade figures from the United States International Trade Commission, this figure represents a significant drop from the $951.6 million recorded over the same period in 2024—marking a 32.4% decline in customs-based imports. The decline was also evident in Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF)-based imports, which fell 32% year-on-year to $666.3 million in 2025 from $979.6 million in 2024.
Despite the downward trend, there may be a silver lining for Nigeria. The Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs, which are set to take effect on April 9, 2025, exclude crude oil and mineral imports—Nigeria’s largest export categories. This exemption is seen as a buffer against further trade disruption, especially as the country continues to rely heavily on oil revenues.
Trade Declines but Surplus Emerges
In February 2025 alone, Nigerian exports to the U.S. totaled $286.3 million on a customs basis, down sharply from $423.6 million in February 2024. This 32.4% decrease reflects global economic headwinds and shifting demand.
On the CIF basis, the decline was also notable—falling from $436.3 million in February 2024 to $298.4 million this year, a 31.6% reduction.
However, Nigeria’s trade balance with the U.S. showed a surprising rebound. In February 2025, the country recorded a trade surplus of $187.2 million, compared to just $77.3 million in the same period last year—an increase of 142.2%. On a cumulative basis, Nigeria’s trade balance shifted from a deficit of $158.8 million in 2024 to a surplus of $44.3 million in 2025.
Overall Trade Still Strong
Total trade between the United States and Nigeria for the opening two months of 2025 reached approximately $1.33 billion, reflecting ongoing strong economic ties between the two nations, even as volumes have declined.
Exports on a Free Alongside Ship (FAS) basis stood at $473.6 million in February 2025, slightly lower than the $501 million recorded in February 2024—a modest 5.5% drop. On a year-to-date basis, exports declined 13.3%, from $792.8 million in 2024 to $687.4 million in 2025.
Outlook Uncertain Amid Tariff Concerns
Although Nigeria has so far avoided direct hits to its major export sectors under the new tariff policy, analysts caution that broader market disruptions could still affect demand and investor confidence.
As the global trade environment adjusts to rising protectionism, particularly in the U.S., countries like Nigeria will need to adapt to shifting dynamics, diversify their exports, and safeguard existing trade relationships to mitigate risks.
With the U.S. tariffs taking effect on April 9, much attention now turns to how international trade flows—particularly with African nations—will be reshaped in the coming months.
